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ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.
25. Notre Dame
Rankings change: Down 7
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.0%
Where Notre Dame is right now: ND avoided its first 0-3 start since 2007 with a win at home over Cal, giving Marcus Freeman his first W as head coach, but this was still a very close game that could have been lost a few times down the stretch, including on the very last play.
24. Pittsburgh
Rankings change: Up 7
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.3%
Where Pittsburgh is right now: Rebounding well enough with a win on the road against Western Michigan to stay at 1 loss after dropping one to Tennessee the week prior, but there are questions at quarterback after the Panthers were down to QB3 coming into this game with both Kedon Slovis and Nick Patti still nursing injuries.
23. Cincinnati
Rankings change: Down 4
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.2%
Where Cincinnati is right now: The defense struggled against Miami (OH) early, and this team was down 17-7 in the second quarter, but the offense responded well behind quarterback Ben Bryant, scoring 31 unanswered points to avoid the upset and stay in position to contend for the AAC, which got a little easier after Houston’s miserable start.
22. Washington
Rankings change: Up 3
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.6%
Where Washington is right now: Looking at a perfect record through 3 games after a statement home upset over 11th ranked Michigan State. Behind quarterback Michael Penix, the Huskies offense looked confident putting the ball in the air, building a big halftime lead and holding off Sparty’s comeback bid in a big win for 1st year coach Kalen DeBoer.
21. Oregon
Rankings change: Up 11
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.9%
Where Oregon is right now: Coming off a statement win at home against a ranked BYU that saw quarterback Bo Nix come into his own, playing arguably his best career game, responsible for 5 total touchdowns, 3 of which he ran for, complemented by a superb offensive line and showing and a physical brand of football from the front seven. That loss to Georgia still sticks out, but Georgia does that to everyone.
20. Wisconsin
Rankings change: Up 15
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.2%
Where Wisconsin is right now: A nice 66-7 rout over New Mexico State to regroup after the Washington State loss, with star running back Braelon Allen powering through for 3 TDs in the victory. It won’t impress the top 25 pollsters too much, but the win is a good morale boost heading into the Big Ten opener on the road at Ohio State next week.
19. Minnesota
Rankings change: Up 4
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 1.2%
Where Minnesota is right now: The Gophers’ offense came into the weekend ranked 1st in FBS in total yards and 7th in points scored, and they helped those averages in a 49-7 rout over Colorado. Mo Ibrahim scored UM’s first 3 TDs while quarterback Tanner Morgan hit on 11 of 16 passes for 2 scores to stay perfect as the only 3-0 team in the Big Ten West.
18. Mississippi State
Rankings change: Down 9
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.1%
Where Mississippi State is right now: Mistakes on offense cost the Bulldogs dearly in what could have been a statement win at LSU. Instead, there was a costly holding call that took away an 88 yard return, too many dropped passes by Will Rogers’ receivers, and a critical fourth quarter interception.
17. Oklahoma State
Rankings change: Up 3
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 1.6%
Where Oklahoma State is right now: An explosive win over an overmatched Pine Bluff helps build some confidence going into the idle week ahead of the rematch against Baylor, which held OSU 1 yard shy of the Big 12 title and a potential College Football Playoff berth last season. Spencer Sanders looks very sharp throwing the ball right now.
16. Michigan State
Rankings change: Down 5
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.4%
Where Michigan State is right now: College football’s worst pass defense didn’t have its best showing on the road to Washington, whose quarterback Michael Penix teased 400 yards out of it to build an early MSU deficit, while Sparty’s run game didn’t get anywhere, finishing with just 42 yards and a 1.4 ypc average.
15. Miami
Rankings change: Up 2
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 1.3%
Where Miami is right now: The big favorites to win the ACC Coastal this season took an L on the road to Texas A&M after failing to get in the end zone despite Tyler Van Dyke’s accuracy. The setback means a likely 9 win season, according to the index, which predicts the Hurricanes could lose two more games on the year.
14. Baylor
Rankings change: None
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.9%
Where Baylor is right now: The loss at BYU last week is a black eye for the Bears’ Big 12 title defense. The index now predicts Baylor will finish with just 8 wins on the year, which would be a disappointment after last year’s progress, but a date at Oklahoma State on Oct. 1 can be a statement for this club.
13. Utah
Rankings change: Down 3
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 2.9%
Where Utah is right now: Recovering well enough from the opening loss at Florida, playing its usual brand of physical defense up front, if not arguably more talented and mature even than last season. And the Utes are still capable of putting the ball just about anywhere behind this veteran skill group led by Cam Rising at quarterback. A midseason home tilt with USC will help settle the score in the Pac-12.
12. LSU
Rankings change: None
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 1.4%
Where LSU is right now: The index is keeping the Tigers high in the latest rankings, and projects they’ll win 8 games in the regular season. Tougher opponents lie ahead, but it was a good showing at home to MSU with Jayden Daniels looking confident, and aided by a maturing rushing attack.
11. USC
Rankings change: Down 3
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 19.7%
Where USC is right now: An impressive, big win at home over Fresno State helps turn this program in the right direction behind a blue-chip offense that hasn’t missed a beat since the opener, but the index projects 2 regular season losses for the Trojans.
10. Penn State
Rankings change: Up 3
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 15.2%
Where Penn State is right now: Anytime a Big Ten team can win on the road in the SEC, it’s a feather in your cap, even if it’s struggling Auburn. But in the process, the Nittany Lions powered through with an elite performance running the ball behind Nick Singleton, and the defense wrung 4 takeaways out of the Tigers’ skill group. A solid step in the right direction as PSU prepares for the gauntlet of the Big Ten East.
9. Oklahoma
Rankings change: Up 6
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 17.6%
Where Oklahoma is right now: The new favorites in the Big 12 this season made a statement on the road to Nebraska. Sure, the Cornhuskers are easy to beat these days, but the great teams do what the Sooners did: move the ball with ease, don’t let up, and set its elite defense on their rivals. An impressive 49-14 showing with Dillon Gabriel showing he can still drive a Jeff Lebby offense to some big numbers.
8. Tennessee
Rankings change: Down 1
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 13.6%
Where Tennessee is right now: The Vols can go wherever this offense can take them, and right now it looks like that’s as the No. 2 team in the SEC East behind Georgia, according to the latest index rankings projections. The schedule gets much tougher, but being perfect through 3 games is where you need to be with rival Florida next on the slate.
7. Ole Miss
Rankings change: Up 9
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 13..4%
Where Ole Miss is right now: Coming off a statement 42-0 rout over Georgia Tech, the Rebels’ first Power 5 shutout in more than a decade, and powering through with a dynamic rushing attack that will get tested as the season matures, especially next weekend against undefeated Kentucky.
6. Texas
Rankings change: None
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 15.7%
Where Texas is right now: There was a scare early at home to UTSA, and it appeared there might have been an emotional drop-off from the 1-point loss to Alabama, but Bijan Robinson responded with a 183-yard performance to go with 3 TDs that kept the Longhorns on the right path as a contender in the Big 12 this season.
5. Clemson
Rankings change: Down 1
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 35.8%
Where Clemson is right now: Still perfect through 3 games, but still with major structural questions on the offensive side of the ball. Louisiana Tech hung around in the first half of this game, and there’s still some rapport to be built between DJ Uiagalelei and his receivers. A crucial home date with NC State awaits in two weeks’ time that will give us a better sample size.
4. Michigan
Rankings change: Up 1
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 31.0%
Where Michigan is right now: What do we really know about a team that’s played such a soft non-conference schedule? For one thing, it can move the ball almost at will, scoring more than 50 points in its first 3 games for the first time ever. J.J. McCarthy is known as a runner, but he’s been deadly accurate passing the ball, and has the pieces to create space downfield.
3. Ohio State
Rankings change: Down 1
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 67.8%
Where Ohio State is right now: Coming off another brilliant offensive showing, dropping 10 touchdowns on Toledo, and that was without Jaxon Smith-Njigba not scoring in his return. The Bucks lit up the Rockets for a Ryan Day-best 77 points in the win with 5 TD passes from Heisman favorite quarterback CJ Stroud. Up next is a test for this new defense against Wisconsin’s superb ground attack.
2. Alabama
Rankings change: Down 1
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 75.8%
Where Alabama is right now: We didn’t learn anything new from the 63-7 rout over UL Monroe, except that Alabama has some of the fastest players in the nation. But the win does show the kind of program Nick Saban has built since 2007, when he lost to this team at home. Since then, it’s been six national titles, and it could be a seventh when all is said and done.
1. Georgia
Rankings change: Up 2
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 80.3%
Where Georgia is right now: The new top team in the rankings, according to the index, after a massacre of South Carolina in the SEC opener. Georgia’s skill pieces marauded the Gamecocks’ patchwork defense for 48 points and Spencer Rattler was harassed in and out of the pocket. Brock Bowers had a career-best 3 TDs and Stetson Bennett played just about perfect football, including a nifty TD run that shook a defender out of his shoes. We know what this team is: the question is if college football’s defending champions can maintain that standard all year. If so, it should be undefeated coming into the SEC title game.
