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ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.
25. Iowa State
Rankings change: Up 2
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.0%
Where Iowa State is now: The Cyclones lost their first game of the season on Saturday, at home to conference rival Baylor, but moved up in the ESPN rankings after quarterback Hunter Dekkers threw for 284 yards and two touchdowns. ISU travels to an undefeated Kansas next week.
24. Maryland
Rankings change: Up 5
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.1%
Where Maryland is now: As expected, the Terps played their aggressive brand of offense on the road at Michigan, and stayed close most of the game despite a very costly turnover on the opening kickoff. This team looks improved from the one that lost by 41 to Michigan last year, but still have a way to go before really challenging the Big Ten.
23. Wisconsin
Rankings change: Down 5
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.0%
Where Wisconsin is now: Sitting at 2-2 after getting destroyed on the road by Ohio State. Graham Mertz was held to under 100 yards passing and under 5 ypa while the Badgers’ talented defense, expected to hold its own in the Big Ten opener, instead was helpless against OSU’s 258 rushing yards and CJ Stroud’s 5 TD passes.
22. Florida State
Rankings change: Up 9
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 2.7%
Where Florida State is now: Don’t look now, but the Seminoles are a perfect 4-0 on the year with three victories against Power 5 teams, with two of those on the road, and coming off a rout over Boston College. Jordan Travis returned from an injury suffered last week against Louisville to throw for a personal-best 321 yards.
21. Oregon
Rankings change: Down 1
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.9%
Where Oregon is now: Surprisingly, moving down in the FPI rankings after a dramatic come from behind win at Washington State. Bo Nix led 2 scoring drives in the last 7 minutes and the Ducks recorded a pick-6 against Cameron Ward to pile on 29 points in the fourth quarter and stay in the Pac-12 title chase.
20. Oklahoma State
Rankings change: Up 2
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.7%
Where Oklahoma State is now: The Cowboys took a breath in Week 4 on an early-season bye week, an opportune time, too, with Baylor coming up next week in a rematch of last year’s frantic Big 12 title game.
19. Mississippi State
Rankings change: Down 2
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.1%
Where Mississippi State is now: Gaining some needed momentum in the non-conference slate after laying the wood on Bowling Green. Will Rogers went over 400 yards passing and threw a school record 6 TD passes. Now the Bulldogs go into one of the toughest slates in college football as the SEC West schedule opens up. MSU’s next 4 opponents should be ranked.
18. Washington
Rankings change: Up 3
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 3.7%
Where Washington is now: Another solid offensive showing as Kalen DeBoer made his Pac-12 debut with the Huskies in an impressive win over Stanford. Coming off the Michigan State win, Michael Penix went 22 of 37 passing with over 300 yards and two scores, aided by a backfield that almost hit 180 yards on the ground.
17. Cincinnati
Rankings change: Up 6
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.9%
Where Cincinnati is now: Perhaps falling off some peoples’ radar after the opening loss at Arkansas, but the Bearcats are perfect since that day, putting up almost 400 yards and forcing 3 takeaways in a dominant win over Indiana. Ben Bryant hit 354 yards passing with 4 TDs and UC’s defense withstood an aerial assault as the Hoosiers put the ball in the air 66 times.
16. Notre Dame
Rankings change: Up 9
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 0.5%
Where Notre Dame is now: At 2-2 on the year after an impressive outing at North Carolina, standing up to Drake Maye’s deep passing game. He still passed for 5 TDs on the Irish defense, but Drew Pyne led a unit that racked up 576 yards of offense in a game ND didn’t have to worry about after a string of close results.
15. Baylor
Rankings change: Down 1
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 1.9%
Where Baylor is now: Blake Shapen was respectable throwing the ball, adding 238 yards in the air with three scores, and the Bears defense came through at Iowa State with two takeaways. The reigning Big 12 champions stay at 3-1 coming into a major tilt with undefeated Oklahoma State.
14. Minnesota
Rankings change: Up 4
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 10.0%
Where Minnesota is now: Looking like the class of the Big Ten West after the division had a tough day. The Gophers took it to Sparty on the road, holding it to all of 1 yard in the first quarter. UM’s defense held Payton Thorne to under 140 yards and forced three turnovers while back Mo Ibrahim continued to dominate with 103 yards and his 41st career TD, a school record.
13. Penn State
Rankings change: Down 3
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 9.9%
Where Penn State is now: Central Michigan played things a little closer than expected in the first half, but the defense pulled four turnovers out of the Chippewas while Sean Clifford accounted for three touchdowns to stay perfect ahead of the tough Big Ten East slate. A home tilt with Northwestern comes before that gauntlet kicks off.
12. Tennessee
Rankings change: Down 4
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 6.7%
Where Tennessee is now: A curious selection by the index rankings to drop the Vols after a statement win at home over a ranked Florida. Tennessee’s offense is as advertised, by led by quarterback Hendon Hooker, and scoring on three statement drives before and after halftime, while the Vols’ defense held on against a furious comeback bid by the Gators.
11. Ole Miss
Rankings change: Down 4
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 6.3%
Where Ole Miss is now: For a time in the first quarter, the Rebels actually trailed at home to Tulsa, but this powerful run game stacked up over 300 yards on the ground and helped put up 28 points in the second quarter. Ole Miss, now perfect through 4 games, didn’t score in the second half and now welcomes undefeated Kentucky this coming Saturday.
10. Utah
Rankings change: Up 3
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 7.2%
Where Utah is now: Still the favorites to win the Pac-12 its the current champion of, the Utes have won 7 straight against conference opposition, all by at least two scores behind its usual offensive success with veteran quarterback Cameron Rising dealing to a group of gifted tight ends.
9. USC
Rankings change: Up 2
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 26.5%
Where USC is now: Coming off a grind-it-out win on the road against conference foe Oregon State. USC trailed very late in this game after its offense stalled, but Caleb Williams helped lead the game-winning drive with just over 1 minute left, hitting Jordan Addison for the score to keep the Trojans undefeated. Winning close games like this bodes well for the team’s maturity as the Pac-12 race heats up.
8. Oklahoma
Rankings change: Up 1
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 5.2%
Where Oklahoma is now: Moving up in the ESPN rankings despite losing at home (again) to Kansas State, dropping 3 of the last 4 against the Wildcats, every time as a top 10 ranked team and its opponent unranked. Brent Venables’ defense couldn’t keep up with Adrian Martinez, who ran for 4 TDs. Dillon Gabriel responded with 330 yards and 4 scores of his own.
7. LSU
Rankings change: Up 5
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 4.3%
Where LSU is now: The index continues to pour love on Brian Kelly’s team, which survived an injury scare for quarterback Jayden Daniels in a shutout over New Mexico. LSU controlled the game on the stat sheet behind a solid offensive line showing, but also lost 2 scores because of penalty. Now comes the SEC West slate with 2 of the next 4 on the road and a brutal stretch with up to 5 straight ranked opponents coming up.
6. Texas
Rankings change: None
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 4.4%
Where Texas is right now: Nothing seems able to dissuade the power index from keeping the Longhorns in the top 10 despite a pair losses that now include an OT fumble against Texas Tech. The Longhorns failed to get a pick despite the Red Raiders throwing the ball 56 times and now Steve Sarkisian is losing any precious momentum he had early this season.
5. Clemson
Rankings change: None
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 42.9%
Where Clemson is now: Coming off a statement win on the road to Wake, but it was anything but easy. DJ Uiagalalei had his best day yet, passing for 371 yards and 5 TDs on the day, building needed rapport with his deep threats, but the Tiger secondary is on notice after struggling badly against Sam Hartman, who added 6 TD passes, a Wake record. This is a vital win in the Atlantic race, as will next week’s date with NC State.
4. Michigan
Rankings change: None
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 29.9%
Where Michigan is now: Blake Corum ran for 243 yards in the win over Maryland, showing that the Wolverines have the power to throw some punches against a Big Ten foe after skating through an easy non-conference schedule. Maryland hung around late against UM’s defense, but the unit came up big late, forcing 3 takeaways from the Terps’ gifted attack.
3. Georgia
Rankings change: Down 2
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 71.9%
Where Georgia is now: College football’s defending national champs had allowed 10 total points coming in, but coughed up 22 to Kent State at home. The offense was sluggish, settling for field goals on 3 drives in the red zone and turned the ball over 3 times. It was a curious sighting and evidence that maybe Georgia started to believe it was invincible. No team is, and while the rest of this schedule looks more than winnable, the Bulldogs learned that you have to be on guard every week.
2. Ohio State
Rankings change: Up 1
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 77.8%
Where Ohio State is now: Jumping over the Dawgs in the ESPN rankings this week after a statement rout over Wisconsin in the Big Ten opener. It was expected the Badgers defense, college football’s No. 1 unit a year ago, would challenge the Buckeyes’ potent passing attack, but nothing of the kind happened. CJ Stroud had 5 TD passes, racked up 539 yards of total offense, and OSU held a dazed Wisky to 7 first-half points.
1. Alabama
Rankings change: Up 1
Chance to make College Football Playoff: 85.2%
Where Alabama is now: Mostly where it’s been the last 15 years after discarding Vanderbilt in a 55-3 decision to open the SEC schedule. Aside from the Texas game, a 1-point win two weeks ago, the Tide has rolled over wildly overmatched opposition. Now the conference schedule gets more intense, with a road date at Arkansas next weekend.
