College football odds, picks, predictions for 2023-24 bowl season: Computer model likes Oregon, Penn State

The 2023-24 college football bowl season has begun but there are nearly 40 matchups yet to be played. With over 2,000 players in the college football transfer portal, college football rosters are changing significantly on a daily basis. The movement can make it difficult to keep track of who will play during bowl season and who won’t, but staying on top of it can provide a huge advantage.

Duke will take on Troy in the 2023 Birmingham Bowl on Dec. 23 and the complexion of their team has changed significantly in the last few weeks with head coach Mike Elko leaving for Texas A&M and starting quarterback Riley Leonard leaving for Notre Dame. Troy is the 7-point favorite in the college football bowl odds via SportsLine consensus, but can Duke rally to pull off the upset? Before locking in any college football bowl picks on those games or others, be sure to see the latest college football predictions from SportsLine’s proven model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a strong profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. The model enters bowl season with a profitable 13-9 record on top-rated spread picks this season. Anyone who has followed it has seen strong returns.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest college football odds for bowl season and locked in picks for every FBS matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top college football predictions for bowl season

One of the college football picks the model is high on during bowl season: No. 10 Penn State (-3.5) builds on a 10-win season with a convincing win over No. 11 Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl on Dec. 30 at noon ET. The Nittany Lions were the top defensive team in college football this season, allowing just 11.4 points per game. Their defense has helped them cover the spread at a high rate against inferior opponents dating back to last season, going 13-1-1 against the spread in their last 15 games as favorites.

Ole Miss failed to cover the spread in its final four games of the season, and its high-octane offense was shut down by Alabama and Georgia this year. The Rebels also scored just 10 points against Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl their last time out, so they cannot be trusted to put up big numbers against Penn State. SportsLine’s model expects the Rebels to struggle in this matchup, as Penn State is covering the spread in more than 60% of the latest simulations. 

Another prediction: No. 8 Oregon (-17.5) cruises to a blowout win over No. 23 Liberty in the Fiesta Bowl on Jan. 1 at 1 p.m. ET. If not for Washington, we’d probably be talking about Oregon’s national title chances right now, as the Ducks’ only two losses came at the hands of the Huskies by a combined six points. Bo Nix finished third in the 2023 Heisman Trophy voting behind LSU’s Jayden Daniels (winner) and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. and Nix has already stated his intention of playing in the Fiesta Bowl.

The former Auburn quarterback spent the last two seasons of his collegiate career in Eugene, completing a staggering 77.2% of his passes for 4,145 yards and 40 touchdowns with only three interceptions this season. Nix also rushed for six touchdowns this season and accounted for a total of 146 touchdowns during his five-year collegiate career. Meanwhile, Liberty is coming off an unbeaten season but didn’t play a single Power Five opponent and allowed at least 25 points in six of its final seven games. Those are big reasons why the model has the Ducks covering in nearly 60% of simulations. See which other teams the model likes here.

How to make college football picks for bowl season

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other FBS matchup during bowl season, and it’s calling for several underdogs to win outright. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what college football picks can you make with confidence, and which underdogs win outright? Check out the latest college football odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $2,000 in profit since its inception, and find out.

College football odds for bowl season

See full college football bowl picks, odds, predictions here.

Monday, Dec. 18

Famous Toastery Bowl: Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion (-3.5, 54)

Tuesday, Dec. 19

Frisco Bowl: Marshall vs. UTSA (-12, 52.5)

Thursday, Dec. 21

Boca Raton Bowl: USF vs. Syracuse (-3, 61)

Friday, Dec. 22

Gasparilla Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. UCF (-4.5, 66.5)

Saturday, Dec. 23

Camellia Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas State (-1, 53.5)

Birmingham Bowl: Duke vs. Troy (-7.5, 44)

Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force vs. James Madison (-2.5, 41)

Idaho Potato Bowl: Utah State vs. Georgia State (-1, 62.5)

68 Ventures Bowl: Eastern Michigan vs. South Alabama (-15.5, 47)

Las Vegas Bowl: Northwestern vs. Utah (-6.5, 42)

Hawaii Bowl: Coastal Carolina vs. San Jose State (-10, 54)

Tuesday, Dec. 26

Quick Lane Bowl: Bowling Green vs. Minnesota (-5.5, 37.5) 

First Responder Bowl: Rice vs. Texas State (-4.5, 60.5)

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: UNLV vs. Kansas (-11.5, 63.5)

Wednesday, Dec. 27

Military Bowl: Tulane vs. Virginia Tech (-7.5, 47.5)

Duke’s Mayo Bowl: North Carolina vs. West Virginia (-3.5, 56.5)

Holiday Bowl: USC vs. Louisville (-7.5, 57.5)

Texas Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M (-3.5, 53.5) 

Thursday, Dec. 28

Fenway Bowl: Boston College vs. SMU (-10.5, 50.5)

Pinstripe Bowl: Rutgers vs. Miami (-3.5, 42.5) 

Pop-Tarts Bowl: North Carolina State vs. Kansas State (-3.5, 47.5) 

Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Arizona (-3.5, 62.5)

Friday, Dec. 29

Gator Bowl: Kentucky vs. Clemson (-7, 47.5) 

Sun Bowl: Oregon State vs. Notre Dame (-10.5, 46.5) 

Liberty Bowl: Memphis vs. Iowa State (-6.5, 57.5) 

Cotton Bowl: Missouri vs. Ohio State (-2.5, 48.5) 

Saturday, Dec. 30

Peach Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Penn State (-3.5, 48.5) 

Music City Bowl: Maryland vs. Auburn (-2.5, 49.5)

Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. Georgia (-14, 45.5) 

Arizona Bowl: Wyoming vs. Toledo (-1.5, 45.5) 

Monday, Jan. 1

ReliaQuest Bowl: Wisconsin vs. LSU (-10.5, 55.5) 

Fiesta Bowl: Liberty vs. Oregon (-16, 64.5) 

Citrus Bowl: Iowa vs. Tennessee (-7, 35.5) 

Rose Bowl: Alabama vs. Michigan (-1.5, 46.5) 

Sugar Bowl: Washington vs. Texas (-4.5, 63.5)

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