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There are some heavy favorites near the end of the 2023-24 college football bowl schedule, including No. 24 SMU (-11) vs. Boston College in the Fenway Bowl on Dec. 28. The Mustangs have not lost a game since September, so many people will feel confident putting them near the top of their college football bowl confidence rankings. Boston College has lost three consecutive games, with two of those losses coming by at least 25 points. Should you have SMU among your highest 2023-24 college football bowl confidence picks?
Using the 2023-24 college football bowl odds from SportsLine consensus is a helpful tool when building a college football bowl confidence strategy. However, relying solely on college football bowl spreads could make your picks too similar to others in your group. Before making any college football predictions for bowl season, don’t miss the bowl confidence pool picks from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It finished the 2023 season a profitable 13-9 on its top-rated college football picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now it has simulated each matchup on the 2023-24 college football bowl schedule 10,000 times and assigned a confidence rating to each game. You can only see all the college football bowl picks over at SportsLine.
Top college football bowl confidence predictions
One of the top 2023-24 college football bowl confidence picks from the model: No. 6 Georgia gets a comfortable win over No. 5 Florida State in the 2023 Orange Bowl at 4 p.m. ET on Dec. 30 in Miami Gardens. While the Seminoles might still have some motivation to make a point following their College Football Playoff snub, it was not enough to keep star wide receiver Johnny Wilson on the field. He declared for the 2024 NFL Draft following the announcement from the College Football Playoff selection committee, leaving Florida State without another one of its stars.
The Seminoles are already playing without starting quarterback Jordan Travis, whose injury was the reason they were left out of the four-team field. Georgia has significantly more talent and depth than Florida State, so the absence of Wilson and Travis will only widen that gap. The Bulldogs are one of the heaviest favorites of bowl season, and they are also among the model’s most confident outright winners at almost an 80% win rate.
Another one of the bowl confidence predictions the model is high on: No. 25 Kansas State handles No. 18 NC State in the 2023 Pop-Tarts Bowl on Dec. 28 at 5:45 p.m. ET. K-State (8-4) was competitive in every game this season as its four losses were all one-score games. Meanwhile, NC State (9-3) had a 15-point average margin of defeat and struggled when it stepped up in competition. The Wolfpack didn’t defeat a team that was ranked at the time of their game, nor is currently ranked in the AP Top 25.
KSU ranked 10th nationally with 37.8 points per game, but the offense should be able to keep rolling with QB Avery Johnson replacing the transferring Will Howard. Johnson was a consensus top-three dual-threat QB in his class, and he had nine total TDs this year despite very limited action. NC State just gave up 334 passing yards, 106 rushing yards and four total TDs to another mobile QB in Drake Maye in its last game. The model has Johnson accounting for nearly three total TDs, while his counterpart in Wolfpack QB Brennan Armstrong doesn’t even have two total TDs. That difference at the QB position has the Wildcats winning in 67% of simulations. See all of the model’s college football bowl confidence picks here.
How to make college football bowl confidence picks
The model has also made the call on who wins every other bowl game. There are 19 teams that win at least 65% of the time, so you need to go big on those matchups, as well as multiple underdogs that win outright. You can get all the model’s picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins every college football bowl game, and which matchups should you assign the most confidence points to? Visit SportsLine to see the full college football bowl confidence picks, all from the model that is up well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football spread picks over the past six-plus season, and find out.
2023-24 college football bowl schedule
See full bowl confidence picks at SportsLine
Saturday, Dec. 16
Myrtle Beach Bowl: Ohio vs. Georgia Southern, 11 a.m. ET
New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana vs. Jacksonville State, 2:15 p.m. ET
Cure Bowl: Appalachian State vs. Miami (Ohio), 3:30 p.m. ET
New Mexico Bowl: Fresno State vs. New Mexico State, 5:45 p.m. ET
LA Bowl: Boise State vs. UCLA, 7:30 p.m. ET
Independence Bowl: Texas Tech vs. California, 9:15 p.m. ET
Monday, Dec. 18
Famous Toastery Bowl: Old Dominion vs. Western Kentucky, 2:30 p.m. ET
Tuesday, Dec. 19
Frisco Bowl: Marshall vs. UTSA, 9 p.m. ET
Thursday, Dec. 21
Boca Raton Bowl: Syracuse vs. USF, 8 p.m. ET
Friday, Dec. 22
Gasparilla Bowl: UCF vs. Georgia Tech, 6:30 p.m. ET
Saturday, Dec. 23
Camellia Bowl: Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas State, noon
Birmingham Bowl: Duke vs. Troy, noon
Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force vs. James Madison, 3:30 p.m. ET
Idaho Potato Bowl: Utah State vs. Georgia State, 3:30 p.m. ET
68 Ventures Bowl: Eastern Michigan vs. South Alabama, 7 p.m. ET
Las Vegas Bowl: Northwestern vs. Utah, 7:30 p.m. ET
Hawaii Bowl: San Jose State vs. Coastal Carolina, 10:30 p.m. ET
Tuesday, Dec. 26
Quick Lane Bowl: Minnesota vs. Bowling Green, 2 p.m. ET
First Responder Bowl: Rice vs. Texas State, 5:30 p.m. ET
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: UNLV vs. Kansas, 9 p.m. ET
Wednesday, Dec. 27
Military Bowl: Tulane vs. Virginia Tech, 2 p.m. ET
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: West Virginia vs. North Carolina, 5:30 p.m. ET
Holiday Bowl: No. 15 Louisville vs. USC, 8 p.m. ET
Texas Bowl: No. 20 Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M, 9 p.m. ET
Thursday, Dec. 28
Fenway Bowl: No. 24 SMU vs. Boston College, 11 a.m. ET
Pinstripe Bowl: Miami (FL) vs. Rutgers, 2:15 p.m. ET
Pop-Tarts Bowl: No. 25 Kansas State vs. No. 18 North Carolina State, 5:45 p.m. ET
Alamo Bowl: No. 12 Oklahoma vs. No. 14 Arizona, 9:15 p.m. ET
Friday, Dec. 29
Gator Bowl: No. 22 Clemson vs. Kentucky, noon ET
Sun Bowl: No. 16 Notre Dame vs. No. 19 Oregon State, 2 p.m. ET
Liberty Bowl: Iowa State vs. Memphis, 3:30 p.m. ET
Cotton Bowl: No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Missouri, 8 p.m. ET
Saturday, Dec. 30
Peach Bowl: No. 10 Penn State vs. No. 11 Ole Miss, noon ET
Music City Bowl: Maryland vs. Auburn, 2 p.m. ET
Orange Bowl: No. 5 Florida State vs. No. 6 Georgia, 4 p.m. ET
Arizona Bowl: Wyoming vs. Toledo, 4:30 p.m. ET
Monday, Jan. 1
ReliaQuest Bowl: No. 13 LSU vs. Wisconsin, noon ET
Citrus Bowl: No. 21 Tennessee vs. No. 17 Iowa, 1 p.m. ET
Fiesta Bowl: No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 23 Liberty, 1 p.m. ET
Rose Bowl: No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Alabama, 5 p.m. ET
Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Washington vs. No. 3 Texas, 8:45 p.m. ET
Monday, Jan. 8
CFP National Championship Game: Winner of Rose Bowl vs. Winner of Sugar Bowl, 7:30 p.m. ET
